Self-Preservation Society

This would have made a great exam problem.

Can I Smoke Yet?

The risk of developing any of the smoking-related cancers is dose-related; that is, the more cigarettes consumed daily, the younger the age at which one initiates smoking, and the more years one smokes, the greater the risk. --from an NIH publication

So if I want to start smoking now, occasionally, what's the risk? Turns out this is frustratingly difficult to find out. Despite the above conclusion, smoking researchers, when pressed, revert to the mantra "there is no safe level of smoking". Which, given the evidence that risk is dose-related, seems to be beside the point or trivially true at best. That's like saying there is no safe level of driving. One cigarette a year? ("There is no safe level of ...." I think it's a pavlovian response in medical professionals involved in smoking cessation efforts. It might be impossible for them not to say this when provided a trigger phrase.) Fine, let's agree it's unsafe. I'll allow that, yes, a 1.01x risk increase (for example) is less safe than no risk increase. What's the actual risk of, say, a nonsmoker for 40+ years smoking 3 cigarettes/week? How old do I need to get before my life expectancy will be roughly the same no matter what I start doing?

More Pointless NFL-related Thoughts While Watching The Playoffs

Kurt Warner does the falling-down handoff a lot. I think it's a designed play. I call it the stumblerooski.

When even the British commentator points out that you shouldn't leave the best offensive player* in single-coverage, you should fire your defensive coordinator.**

Announcers should be fined. The league loves fining players. They should start fining announcers, beginning with $10,000 for every utterance of "third and manageable". As far as I can tell, Peyton Manning once used that phrase when talking to John Madden, who reacted as if Manning had simultaneously solved cold fusion, invented a time-travel pen, and shared his secret chocolate chip cookie recipe. So Madden proceeded to use it 15-30 times per game, and now every announcer works it into the broadcast. Often. Begin the fines. Please.



*Larry Fitzgerald, who scored approximately 9 million points last week, and has already had 3 touchdowns against the Eagles, whose halftime "adjustments" should be to fire everyone, except that, like last weekend, I've got money on the Cards.

**[UPDATED] Egads! I jinxed it. Philadelphia has certainly adjusted, and are destroying AZ now in the second half. Oops.***

***[UPDATED [again]]: Hey, the Cards pulled it off. I win! Wonder if McNabb is done in Philly.

Strange Service Offering

From an Austrian hotel listing: "child animation on request". Maybe they meant re-animation.

arcane, esoteric, idiotic

broadly applicable quote from science writer Gary Taubes:

No matter how arcane, esoteric, or idiotic the presentation, there was always somebody in the audience afterwards who would raise their hand and say, “that was a fascinating presentation, really want to thank you for coming.”

I started my career writing about high-energy physics, and the last time I’d actually been to this kind of seminar was in physics. In physics seminars you present your evidence and your data and then the audience rips you to shreds. Because what they’re interested in is finding out how sound your conclusions really are. The last thing they do is raise their hand and tell you how gee-whiz fascinating it was.

Silence! Angus is crafting a stimulus package.

Sadly, no, just a bunch of wonks. And now I'm throwing my hat into the ring. Mike "Okun's Razor" Sankowski has been posting in detail on this issue at DailyKos, and slightly less compulsively on his own blog. I responded on the latter on this issue thusly:

Here's my take on how big the stimulus package should be. The question I have for policymakers is: "How big does it have to be such that, if it fails, you will agree that it didn't work because the theory was flawed, not because the spend wasn't big enough?" That's how much should be spent.

If it fails because not enough was spent, the republicans will still attack it as too much spending. Lots of smart people will argue that no, there wasn't enough spending, but, sadly, they will no longer have much credibility with the public. Conversely, deficit spending backers should not be acting on faith and thus should be willing to set forth conditions under which we will admit we were wrong.

Office Pens

Office supplies get worse every year. Oh how fondly I remember the days when one could get a decent pen at work. Now the best pens I get by way of work are hotel pens on business trips. I'm partial to the gel pens at the Parker Meridien in New York.

State of The Village (Victoria Park)

Not yet open a full year, the Ginger Pig is doing well after a bang-up Christmas. Cheech Miller has settled in well near Sublime and is a great addition to the neighborhood. Spot-on business for the neighborhood, too. Across the street its family-friendly neighbor, Victoria Park Books, remains busy and engaging. Loafing seems to be doing well. I don't much go there. I've not yet gotten over my disappointment that it's not a real bakery. I was hoping for a proper boulangerie when they were in the building phase on the storefont. I would have settled for a patisserie. Early on, they mentioned something about ovens getting fitted, so maybe they did plan to make something there, but seems to me like they just resell (good quality) baked goods. But it's a pleasant space and everyone was nice the two times I've been in there. For cafes, I much prefer Elbows. They make their own food, including some nice cakes. The non-dessert foods are nothing special, but the coffee's good, the prices are reasonable, it's a cosy and charming space, and the folks who run it are incredibly welcoming and kid-friendly. Great neighborhood cafe.

Sadly, Frock's restaurant has closed down. There was a note from Andy briefly saying they'd sold it, but so far, nothing's opened up in its place, and the space is now for rent. Shame. But Fish House is doing well. Great cod and other battered fish. Restaurant side has comically lax service and really needs to be improved, but the takeaway side is really nicely done! (except for the chips...) Directly south of the Fish House is The Empress of India, which is doing well and generally ok, but overpriced and a bit poncy I think. I rarely go there. South of that is Chili's, surprisingly still in business, and next to that the longtime mysterious "just postcards" building has finally been converted into something useful -- a stylish new Sardinian deli & restaurant, Su Sazzagoni. The interior's been done nicely -- elegant but informal. We ate there the other night and the food was fantastic. Service was spotty but they just opened and are still figuring things out, and the proprietress was very welcoming and enthusiastic. Was a bit rough on the wallet, but everything we had was excellent. And I was excited to see Sardinian fare rather than a cut&paste Italian menu. Will definitely go back.

There have been a few new pub openings this past year. The misguided tapas restaurant just south of the park finally gave up and was converted back into a pub, a fine-looking one now called The Crown. Have not yet had a chance to try it, but looking forward to it. West on Victoria Park Road, a slightly run-down pub has gotten a big spruce-up and a revamp into Garbo's. Looks worth a visit. Eastward, right on the park just south of Well Street Common, another renovation has been effected, this one yielding the Britannia. Seems like they want to be all things to all people, but at least so far even on just the eyes it's been a big improvement over its predecessor. Of the pubs I actually have been to, The Royal Inn remains its reliable self, and I think The Lauriston now qualifies as a fixture.

Finally, there are a couple brand-new stores. Bill Hall opened up, a small "fruiterer and green grocer" shopfront. Too early to tell. Seems like he rushed to get opened before Christmas. Hopefully he'll fill up with high-quality stock and be a great addition to the neighborhood. And apparently a new bike shop just opened up on Victoria Park Road. Gutsy call. Hope to stop by soon.

TN vs. Baltimore

Quite a game. I get the feeling those teams don't like each other. Incredible intensity the entire time. Shocking that Tennessee didn't win, but the turnovers killed them. Turnovers and blown calls. Flacco stepped out of the back of endzone for what should have been a safety, but it wasn't called. Worse was the other big blown non-call on the missed delay of game that ended up being a big catch on 3rd down. Oh well. At least I didn't have any money on the game. I did have money on the Cardinals, luckily enough, who made heavily-favored Carolina look pretty inept.

Codger

I just crossed the old coot threshold. I get Facebook. I mostly find it annoying, but I get it. Twitter, I don't get. I don't understand why anyone would use it or why anyone would follow it. There. I'm done. Now get the fuck off my lawn. I need to go survey my goober domain.

Socks

I don't understand why over-the-calf socks are not more popular. I find them several orders of magnitude more comfortable than mid-calf socks. They look identical when you're trousered, and they look pretty much equally stupid if you've got them on while naked. Which should just leave comfort.

Sportswriting

Smart guy Gregg Easterbrook is my new favorite sportswriter. Yes, his columns end up on the epic side. I think he gets a bit bottled up during NFL season, and should switch to daily (or perhaps hourly) reports. But he's great to read for both football and non-football related items. Check out the "Trust Us, We're Experts" bit he randomly sneaks into the very middle of this week's column.

Hubris

As Shakespeare once said, "Can't say you weren't warned." Too late for Dick Fuld.

Monster Movies

Recently watched The Incredible Hulk. Was so-so. Started out ok. Edward Norton was just ok. The problem is that it gets kind of boring every time he turns into the monster, although there were some ok moments of unintentional comedy. The genius of Iron Man was that he could still be himself inside the suit. Even as much as I like Christian Bale, the growly batman voice gets old quickly.

Many monster movies really fall back into three archetypes: vampire, werewolf, or zombie. Hulk is a werewolf movie. Turns into an animal, struggles to control immense power & aggression & animal appetites, etc. True werewolves have the advantage in that they're not asked to say things like "hulk smash" in the middle of their violent scenes. 28 Days Later was a bit of a werewolf movie, except no one ever turned back. Halloween was a zombie movie (the inexorable pursuit by death itself). The best werewolf movies are long on humans, short on wolf scenes. It would be interesting to see a hulk with almost no green fight scenes.

Photo Books

Round 1 was a year ago, Photobox vs. Blurb. While I've been very happy with Photobox for prints, their book printing was lousy -- very dark and dull, washed-out color. Blurb's book printing was vastly better, although Blurb's layout software was incredibly frustrating, a complete pain.

This year I'll try Blurb again, and maybe Bobbooks, Fotobook, and/or Cewe. I've downloaded Blurb's latest version and it's not better for layout. Unfortunately they put a lot of energy into being a vanity press, and it seems like a brilliant money-making scheme for them, but the upshot is they don't have to take the layout software problems as seriously I suppose. Shame. Also unfortunate is that Bobbooks, Fotobook, and Cewe, unlike Blurb or Photobox, offer windows-only software. (Ironically, Cewe uses an image of what looks like a Macbook Pro on a page showing a little camera-->computer-->book flow diagram.)

A Nice Suit

I would love to get a real suit made someday. In the meantime, I've been compulsively reading a blog by tailor Thomas Mahon. It is exactly as one would hope: both refined and informative.

Chicago Blackhawks

When I moved to Chicago in 1991, my apartment seemed to have free cable. On it was a now-defunct sports channel that showed Blackhawks (Chicago professional ice-hockey franchise) away games. At the time this was a big deal, because no Hawks games were ever shown on TV, due to the braindead policies of their owner, Bill Wirtz, correctly considered to be the worst owner in not just ice hockey but in any major sports league. Anyway, I watched a lot of games, even went to one eventually, and it was much more exciting than I expected. In fact, the home crowd's gutsy roar ("cheering" doesn't do it justice) during the entire national anthem to open proceedings was so perfect I can't figure out why anyone still does a cheerless singalong instead. But the team was bad and difficult to follow (no home games on TV, for example) -- basically punishing the supporters.

But recently, Bill Wirtz died and the franchise has, by the looks of it, been completely revived. I don't follow ice hockey or the Blackhawks, but today they play a special outdoor game at Wrigley Field which should be a fantastic spectacle. Espn has some nice coverage of it, including a good article on the turnaround of the franchise (my favorite detail of which is the Ottawa newspaper's headline, "Millionaires Behaving Properly"), and a charming video of some player q&a about playing outdoors at Wrigley, including advice on how to throw an octopus onto the rink.