US Primaries

For many years, conventional wisdom was that the US primary season was far too short, that too much was decided too early and that voters weren't getting a chance to properly assess candidates. Now that the country is faced with the terrifying prospect of Indiana having a say in who gets to be president, we're all in complete agreement that the primaries are far too long.

Understanding Finance Through Sports Analogies

Whoops. Twenty days ago, Morgan Stanley thought the credit crisis was in the "final innings", but now it's reverted to only the "third inning". I haven't been to a baseball game in a while, but I don't think innings progress from high to low. Maybe they do now.

If we really want to understand the credit crisis, we have to understand that it's really in a 3rd down situation, but not short enough yardage to warrant double tight ends. In fact, it's really more like a 1st down, or perhaps a 4th down, with the recession having a power play and a corner kick, just prior to a jump ball due to too many men on the field. If we have any hope of scoring a triple-double hat trick within 6 overs, the Fed will have to stay within the peleton and let the banks get the possession guy into the slot. Liquidity is running a 3-4, or perhaps a 4-3, or perhaps a box and one. It's all about moving the chains and it's a game of inches. Please remain seated for the national anthem.

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Understatement Trading At All-Time Highs

From a Bloomberg article today:

``There've been some disappointments,'' Paul Scanlon, team leader for U.S. high yield and bank debt at Putnam Investments....

Heathrow: How Could It Be Worse?

I am astonished that billions have been spent on expansion and renovation of Heathrow for the Terminal 5 project and the net result is that everything about the Heathrow experience has gotten worse! Astonished in the first place because I didn't think it was possible for the Heathrow experience to get worse. Astonished in the second place that so much could be spent with such a negative outcome. Normally the worst expected case is that lots of money gets moved around but nothing actually changes -- quite a few people walk away wealthy but nothing gets improved. But this is something different entirely: big terminal, new infrastructure, roads, train tracks all were actually built. Nothing would have been an improvement.

I'm not even talking about the much-publicized terminal 5 problems. I'm talking about the entire Heathrow experience, starting with getting there. The Heathrow Express, which is owned and run by BAA (the airport company, nothing to do with BA the airline), has gotten worse. It was always vastly overpriced and not as quick as suggested, due largely to the 10-20 minute walk required to get to checkin from the train stop. Now it no longer goes to Terminal 4, it stops at Heathrow "central", as always, for terminals 1, 2, & 3, then goes on to Terminal 5. To get to Terminal 4, you have to switch trains. When I flew out yesterday, the schedule was such that the first train to Terminal 4 was a 21-minute wait. So Heathrow express is expensive, takes as long or longer than a cab, and is inconvenient. And there is simply no good way to get to Terminal 4 now. There's still no good way to get between terminals at Heathrow, and it's even worse now. I feel really sorry for anyone who transfers at Heathrow and has to switch terminals. Billions were spent without adding sensible rail extensions or making any other intermodal transport improvements.

Anyone with a choice and some sense will probably try to avoid Heathrow. Personally I don't think I'll be using the train anymore to get there. How is that a good result for anyone? This was bungling on a corporate scale, not governmental. Anyone describing privatization as an unqualified good should be forced to fly only from Heathrow the rest of their days. The public has a huge vested interest in the efficiency and utility of transport links, and the government should be ensuring intelligent and useful intermodal design and investment. This was a poor design implemented expensively and benefitting no one, and the private sector is to blame.

I can't help comparing it to other airport projects in recent years. This would never have happened in Munich, or Hong Kong, or Singapore. It's outrageous and sad that this was allowed to happen in London.

Closer to the Meat

Fergus (6) wanted us to sell our house and move into a flat for rent above a restaurant next to the Ginger Pig, just to be that much closer to the butcher. It was one of my proudest moments as a father.

Agreed

Gorillas are not helpful in completing the task. --Laurence Gonzales

The Problem With Offshoring

Corporations can move capital relatively freely but the labor pool has no such luxury. Thus corporations can outsource offshore with impugnity, relocating wages, but the labor being replaced does not have the choice to freely relocate. E.g. a software developer in the US might very much like to relocate to India to retain a job, with commensurate reductions in both salary and cost of living to maintain a fairly consistent quality of life, but that's not an option. There's an imbalance of power, with the corporations having more options than the workforce.

End The Bend

More proof I'm going native: tonight's London mayoral debate featured a heated argument over bendy buses. This should be a ridiculous debate topic, and it was, but I was really into it because I have an abiding hatred of those things. Shame I can't vote.

Victoria Park

Neighborhood news:  the ginger pig has finally opened here! Better late than never. And the tapas place that used to be an organic gastropub (good pub, lousy food) has closed and the space is now reopening as a pub.  I think most tapas places are doomed to failure. It's taking something that works in kind of a pub crawl model and trying to turn it into a dinner. Tapas menus are so long that unless the place has huge daily turnover, I'm leery of anything I order being fresh enough to be good. And it's not much fun unless you're in a large group.  Although I gave it the benefit of the doubt and went a few time when it first opened (inconsistent food), I'm not sorry to see it go.